Fishing · Michigan · Hydrology dataset
Michigan Rivers Ranked by Fall Flow Reliability
A ranking of 11 Michigan rivers with curated USGS gauges, ordered by fall seasonal discharge reliability — how consistent year-to-year median fall flow has been over the recent Daily Values record.
Scope: this score measures hydrological stability of discharge relative to each river's own seasonal norms — year-to-year consistency of fall median flow, not absolute volume. It is not a fishing-quality ranking. Large connecting waters (for example the Detroit River) naturally score high because their fall medians vary little from year to year.
| Rank | River | Fall reliability | Median Sep–Oct (cfs) | Fall window | USGS station |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Detroit River | 92% | 222,000Sep 220,000 · Oct 224,000 | 78 wk2016-09-12 → 2024-10-21 | 04165710 |
| 2 | Manistee River | 89% | 940Sep 904 · Oct 977 | 67 wk2016-10-10 → 2026-08-31 | 04124000 |
| 3 | Boardman River | 88% | 237Sep 226 · Oct 249 | 68 wk2016-09-26 → 2025-10-20 | 04127200 |
| 4 | Sturgeon River | 85% | 206Sep 197 · Oct 216 | 71 wk2016-09-05 → 2026-08-31 | 04127997 |
| 5 | Au Sable River | 84% | 840Sep 808 · Oct 873 | 76 wk2016-09-05 → 2026-08-31 | 04136500 |
| 6 | Muskegon River | 76% | 1,603Sep 1,370 · Oct 1,835 | 27 wk2017-10-09 → 2020-11-02 | 04122001 |
| 7 | Kalamazoo River | 73% | 1,445Sep 1,230 · Oct 1,660 | 65 wk2016-09-05 → 2025-10-20 | 04108660 |
| 8 | Rifle River | 72% | 198Sep 175 · Oct 221 | 65 wk2016-10-03 → 2026-08-31 | 04142000 |
| 9 | Pere Marquette River | 66% | 568Sep 525 · Oct 611 | 69 wk2016-09-05 → 2024-11-25 | 04122500 |
| 10 | St. Joseph River | 62% | 2,233Sep 1,960 · Oct 2,505 | 52 wk2016-09-05 → 2023-10-16 | 04101500 |
| 11 | Grand River | 58% | 2,605Sep 2,025 · Oct 3,185 | 68 wk2016-09-05 → 2025-10-20 | 04119000 |
Methodology
- Scope. The ranking score measures hydrological stability of discharge relative to each river's own seasonal norms (consistency of fall median flow across years). It is not a fishing-quality ranking and does not compare habitat, species runs, or angler opportunity. Large connecting waters (for example the Detroit River) naturally score high because their year-to-year fall medians are already very stable.
- Data source. Discharge (parameter 00060) and, when present, water temperature (00010) from the USGS National Water Information System Daily Values (NWIS DV) web service (waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv). Temperatures are stored in °C (USGS native) and shown to readers as °F with °C in parentheses. Each river uses one hand-selected USGS gauge we attach to that water — not an automatically nearest-gauge guess.
- Period covered. Across rivers currently listed, Daily Values windows span 2016-09-07/2026-09-06 (ISO dates, UTC). Each river’s score uses approximately the most recent 10 years of daily discharge ending at that station’s latest sample in the pull.
- Fall reliability score. For calendar fall (September–November), compute each year’s median daily discharge, then take the coefficient of variation (CV) of those yearly medians. Reliability =
1 − min(1, CV), bounded to [0, 1]. Higher values mean more year-to-year consistency of seasonal median discharge (hydrological consistency), not suitability for recreation. - Median Sep–Oct discharge. Mean of the station’s long-window monthly median discharge for September and October (cubic feet per second), when both months are available.
- Fall window. Within September–November, count weeks whose median discharge lies inside the 10-year interquartile band (p25–p75) of daily discharge for that station. Reported as week count and the earliest/latest qualifying week starts. Descriptive hydrology only.
- Inclusion. A river appears only when we have a finite fall reliability score for its attached Michigan river gauge. Missing stats omit the row. Rivers without a published fishing guide on this site are listed by name without an internal guide link.
Method: usgs_dv_v1: monthly medians; 10yr discharge percentiles; seasonal reliability = 1-min(1, CV of yearly seasonal medians); fall window = Sep–Nov weeks with median discharge in 10yr p25–p75, temp-informed when 00010 present
Last computed Sep 7, 2026 (UTC date). Stats refresh on a weekly schedule from USGS Daily Values; this page revalidates daily and reflects the latest stored compute.
Hydrological description only — not advice about wading, floating, or whether conditions are safe for recreation. Always check current USGS readings and local guidance before you go.
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